BOOK REVIEW: The Fourth Turning is Here

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In past blog articles, I have often cited the theories of generational scholars, William Strauss and Neil Howe. Their research, which focuses on the cycles of history in an effort to make generalized predictions about the future, fascinates me from both a personal and professional standpoint. Moreover, the information they share is broadly applicable and relevant to everyone, regardless of their age or generation.  

My mother-in-law recently gave me a gift certificate to Barnes and Noble for my birthday. In addition to getting a book or toy for each of my kids, I spotted a book among the stacks that I just knew I had to buy. It was Neil Howe's latest book on Generational Theory, published this year (2023), entitled, The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End.

The crisis Howe is referring to is the "Crisis of 2020," which he and his colleague, William Strauss, predicted all the way back in the late 1990s. According to Strauss and Howe, the Crisis of 2020 will take place during the decade of the 2020s and be on par with previous major crises, such as World War II, The Civil War, and the American Revolution.

Based on their extensive research, Howe and Strauss have concluded that major, generation-defining crises typically arise on a cyclical basis every four generations (approximately 80 years). The "Fourth Turning" refers to the world's transition from the third generational period into the fourth (or final) generational period of a given cycle, and is marked by some kind of major crisis. The last three major crises took place in the 1770-80s (American Revolution), the 1860s (Civil War), and the 1940s (WW2). According to Strauss and Howe's theory, this means our next great crisis is due during the 2020s.

When the Covid-19 Pandemic broke out, it seemed evident to me that the Crisis of 2020 was indeed upon us, and right on schedule!

However, the more I thought about it, the more evident it became to me that the pandemic was likely just a prelude—an opening act of sorts—to a much bigger and more devastating crisis yet to come.

As his new book makes clear, this is Howe's perspective as well.

I won't spoil the book for you by sharing too many details discussed therein. Suffice it to say, Howe's book serves as a warning about the period of history we are presently passing through, and the severe trial-by-fire that is likely to enflame us before the end of the decade.

One of the things I like best about Howe's book is that despite its dire predictions, it is not all doom-and-gloom. To the contrary, it is quite hopeful and optimistic about the future in spite of our nation's current cultural divisions, political polarization, and other troubles.

To wit: Howe believes it is not only possible—but likely—that Americans will ultimately rise to the occasion by setting our differences aside in order to unite and successfully confront whatever troubles lie ahead—just as our ancestors did during World Wars and the Great Depression, the Civil War, and the American Revolution. Howe notes that while a positive outcome to the "Crisis of 2020" is not guaranteed, he remains optimistic about our potential to meet and transcend whatever crucible is headed our way. 

I agree with him on this and many other points he makes in this and other books he has co-authored. 

Indeed, I enthusiastically share Howe's belief that our future can still be better and brighter than our past, and that our best days (by far) still lie ahead of us, not behind us, regardless of the enormity of present and future obstacles. Howe, in fact, underscores the great truth that character is best forged not in times of comfort or peace, but in moments of grave conflict and serious difficulty. Thus, whatever challenges await us may actually serve as a means of our future survival and success. In making this point, Howe quotes Helen Keller, who once said: Character cannot be developed in ease and quiet. Only through experience of trial and suffering can the soul be strengthened, ambition inspired, and success achieved.

Helen Keller
1880-1968

"Character cannot be developed in ease and quiet. Only through experience of trial and suffering can the soul be strengthened, ambition inspired, and success achieved."

—Helen Keller

Of course no one knows exactly what the future holds. Nevertheless, Howe suggests that a serious armed conflict (on par with the two previous World Wars) between the growing divide of Great Powers (i.e. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea vs. The Western Democracies) is a very real possibility in coming years. In light of Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine, reminiscent of Imperial Germany's "Rape of Belgium" in August 1914 and the Nazi's unprovoked invasion of Poland in September 1939, the possibility of such a repeat of history does seem plausible.

As Howe puts it:

"Once again, the long-dormant threat of war between the world's great powers has jumped back to life, only this time with nine nations already armed with nuclear weapons. Once again, the authoritarian powers are drawing together, united by their territorial ambitions and by their conviction that democracies have lost their will to resist. ... 

"Just before retiring at the end of 2022, Admiral Charles Richard, head of the U.S. Strategic Command, declared that 'this Ukrainian crisis that we're in right now, this is just the warmup. ... The big one is coming. And it isn't going to be very long before we're going to get tested in ways that we haven't been tested ... for a long time.'" (1) 

Unfortunately, an armed conflict on par with previous world wars will likely prove many times more calamitous than its historical precedents because technological advances have greatly expanded our capacity for death and destruction on a large scale. Thus, we remain hopeful that such a conflict can yet be averted. 

Nevertheless, as Howe lays out in cogent detail, a mammoth crisis of one kind or another—including perhaps a second civil war—is virtually certain to unfold sometime later this decade. As such, he suggests that the best thing each of us can do is take PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY to prepare ourselves (and those over whom we wield responsibility and influence) for whatever is to come, thus maximizing the likelihood of an end result marked by victory, peace, and the dawn of a new age filled with light and hope.

"In a Democracy (or any other organization)
the quality of the individual is supreme."

~ Theodore Roosevelt

Citing the Bhagavad Gita, Howe explains that "each person has a role, chosen or not, that he or she should strive to fulfill as perfectly and as selflessly as possible. ... He must fulfill that role, and do so with as much proficiency, honor, and humanity as he can muster." (2)

Sounds a little like SELF-ACTION LEADERSHIP, doesn't it? 

Which brings us to a fascinating question...

WHY has SAL not caught on in any significant way yet? 

After so much effort devoted to its animation, creation, organization, and perpetuation over the past 20 years, why does it continue to be so widely disregarded and ignored, especially when its need, efficacy, and value are so patently self-evident?

TIMING isn't everything;
but it is the hinge upon which the door of destiny swings.

As you can imagine, I've spent a lot of time pondering this perplexing question myself over the last two decades. In the process, I have come to a variety of different peripheral conclusion. But the main answer always boils down to one word: TIMING.

America and the World are in such turmoil right now and individuals everywhere are so dreadfully distracted by an unending litany of superfluous diversions and divisions that they simply can't see their own personal need for SAL. 

But when the timing is right, they will.

     Indeed... when the timing is right, YOU will as well.

In fact, if you are reading these words right now on September 22, 2023, you are already making significant progress along your own SAL journey, an achievement for which I congratulate you.

The burning and lingering question that remains, then, is as follows: will SAL take off during the crisis, after the crisis, or a combination of both?

While it is certainly possible it could end up playing a significant role in preparing individuals to face and overcome the crisis once it is upon us, it is probably more likely that it will serve as a go-to template for rebuilding lives, organizations, and society-at-large after the dust has finally cleared. But if the past is precedent to the present, I (somewhat sadly) doubt that SAL will garner any significant traction before the onset of the crisis.

But as always...

     I could be wrong!

Otto Von Bismarck
1815-1898

Determined to unify Germany's disparate states into

one country, Bismarck succeeded in part because

of his "Iron & Blood" policy, which, albeit

successful, also foreshadowed the horrors to come

later on at the Western Front in WWI. 

In the meantime, it is hard for any historian (professional or amateur) to ignore the historical parallels between recent international events (and their concomitant military buildups) and eerily similar escalations that previously occurred in the decades leading up to 1914 and 1939.

When overtly aggressive powers build up their militaries in significant and provocative ways, history more-or-less guarantees it is only a matter of time before they begin using their stockpiles of men and machines—or "Iron and Blood" as Otto Von Bismarck put it—to advance their imperial geopolitical aims.

Whether it is the French Emperor Napoleon and his Grand Armée's invasion of Russia in 1812, the Kaiser's Imperial German Army's invasion of Belgium and France in 1914, or Hitler's Luftwaffe and Wermacht invading all of Western Europe in 1939-40, the same pattern has played out over-and-over-and-over again throughout history. Indeed, one of the greatest and most myopic errors of late twentieth and early twenty-first century Western politicians has been their naïve cultivation of the myth that the human race had collectively outgrown human evil and its related imperial ambitions for conquest. Such naïvete has led to policies and inactions that have emboldened our enemies in ways not seen for nearly 80 years, as Russia so provocatively proved on February 24, 2022.

Given the routine cycling of conquest and war throughout history—and its tendency to create a seedbed for progress in subsequent generations—Howe courageously discusses the important role that war has played throughout history. The obvious question that arises from such a discussion, of course, is whether humankind can ultimately survive and thrive (progress) without it. After all, where would America be at all without its Revolution?  And how much longer would slavery had lingered had there been no Civil War? And what would America have become in the second half of the twentieth century without its trial by fire at the end of the first half? In other words, are human beings capable of developing the moral qualities (e.g. sacrifice, loyalty, community, altruism, focus, determination, persistence, etc.) that war inevitably forges without the war itself? Howe closes his discussion this way:

"Here is where the question must be left to rest. Few of us are so without hope that we insist on the strict necessity of war. At the same time, few of us are so without prudence that we insist that this time must be different." (3)

Without any doubt or question, evil and the lust for imperial conquest remain alive and well in the twenty-first century.

Soldiers of Napoleon's Grand Armée
during the Russian disaster of 1812

Evil and other imperial ambitions of conquest must always be discouraged, dissuaded, and where necessary checked by strong, freedom-loving defensive armed forces. This is why Freedom Focused will always support the military philosophy of Peace through Strength—as long as the nations upholding said philosophy remain committed to an anti-imperial, defensive doctrine of warfare.

As such, it behooves the United States, the European Union, and their allies to continually seek to outpace the leadership and military capabilities of their growing axis of enemies. It was, after all, brilliant leadership by the Duke of Wellington and strong allied coalition forces (in concert with the Russian winter) that defeated Napoleon between 1812-1815. 

Similarly, it was strong allied forces (bolstered at the end by the United States) that checked the aggressive imperial aims of the Central Powers in World War I. This same song, albeit a different verse, played out again in World War II as brilliant and inspired leaders named Churchill, Roosevelt, and Eisenhower led massive armies and armaments in an unconditional defeat of the Axis Powers.

Despite the obvious risks of preparing for any armed conflict, the greatest risk of all is to be caught unawares and unprepared by the enemy who seeks your downfall. Hence, it is weakness that invites the greatest calamity of all. For the West to prevail in whatever struggles lie ahead, the West must be strong. Just as importantly, the West must be united in the cause of liberty, freedom, and brotherhood.  

As the old saying goes: United We Stand; Divided We Fall.

If the world is to survive and thrive,
it must look to the light of TRUTH,
UNITY, LIBERTY, and FREEDOM.

Freedom Focused and SAL stand ready to serve whenever and however our nation and her allies call upon us: be that before, during, or after whatever calamity currently lies at our doorstep decides to burst through the door.     

I call upon Americans, Westerners, and everyone else on Planet Earth to embrace SAL and unite around the shared ideals of liberty, FREEDOM, and brotherhood... and the sooner the better, so that we might best prepare ourselves and stand in readiness for the crucibles that are most assuredly coming.

Who knows, if enough of us embrace SAL before the conflict expands, we might even be able to prevent it from consuming the world in chaos and destruction.  

Will YOU join and stand with me in this quest?

—Dr. JJ

Friday, September 22, 2023

Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, USA

Author's Note: This is the 348th Blog Post Published by Freedom Focused LLC since November 2013 and the 165th consecutive weekly blog published since August 31, 2020.   

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Notes:

1).  Howe, N. (2023) The Fourth Turning is Here. New York, NY: Simon & Schuster. Pages 240-241. 

2).  Ibid. Page 457.

3).  Ibid. Page 287.